AZ SecState: Expect some changes by the end of the day

AZ SecState: Expect some changes by the end of the day

AZ SecState: Expect some changes by the end of the day

Gee, whatever can Katie Hobbs mean? Actually, Arizona’s Secretary of State gives some rational background on what’s happening with their vote count from last night, and explains why the official numbers aren’t changing yet this morning. Despite rumors of reversed counts and narrowing margins, the official numbers won’t change unless the counties update their counts.

That won’t happen until the end of business today for Maricopa County, Hobbs told KTAR a little while ago, but she expects some significant changes. That is where most of the outstanding ballots are being counted:

Hobbs gently demurs from “calling” the race, and explains that’s not her job. She does caution others not to do so either, but to wait for the final counts to be registered with her office. As soon as she gets those, Hobbs says, the official tally will get updated on the state’s website.

The New York Times pointedly notes now that only 86% of the estimated vote has yet been counted, as of noon ET today. That itself if a mild correction to earlier reports that 99% had reported. Katie Pavlich reports that in her Townhall curation of tweeted developments:

So there is a significant amount of the vote still outstanding in Arizona. If it’s all from Maricopa, it won’t help Trump much, as Maricopa tilts Democratic and Biden’s up six points in the county’s count at the moment. Vaughn Hillyard claims there is a wide distribution of uncounted votes that could still push Arizona into Trump’s column, which a firm named Data Orbital says fits their analysis:

If the vast majority of these are from Maricopa and Pima (Tucson) as Hillyard reports, I am not sure how this looks like good news. The operating theory (as I understand it) is that these are mainly same-day voting ballots, which should favor Trump, but it’s still in two Democratic strongholds. Sixty-two thousand in Pinal should be very good news for Trump, but up against ~350K in two Democratic strongholds? Trump would need a miracle to wring victory out of Phoenix and Tucson.

But first, perhaps we should count the votes before writing it off or calling it, as Governor Doug Ducey suggests:

I agree, so stay tuned for a 5 PT update to these numbers.

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